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Is
it Worth the Risk?
By Tony Beckwith
“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you
make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong”. Legendary
trader Stanley Druckenmiller says, in ‘The New Market Wizards’ book, that’s the
most important lesson he learnt from his time managing money for the
ultra-legendary George Soros. If those two believe that, why doesn’t the vast
majority of traders who are spending their time losing money...?
Almost all of the most successful traders throughout history learned early on in
their careers (and probably the hard way!) that the “Holy Grail” in financial
markets simply doesn’t exist. Novice and amateur traders typically search for
extraordinarily high win/loss ratios, to comfort a demanding, human ego in the
never-ending quest to be “right”. That is extremely seductive, yet wrong –
again, as Druckenmiller states, “Soros is also the best loss taker I’ve ever
seen”...meaning controlling the losses is absolutely essential if you are to
stay in the trading business.
Obsessing about win / loss ratios is addressing only one aspect of trading risk
and, arguably, the weakest aspect. It is abundantly clear that a win/loss ratio
of, say, 70 percent, ego-boosting though it may be, is positively destructive if
you’re losing, say, twice as much on your losing trades as you’re pocketing on
your winners…
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