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What
to Expect Following An October Reversal
By Robert Miner
“October is far and away the most frequent month for major reversals (20% or
more). Most Oct. major reversals are lows. Oct. is also the most frequent month
for 10% and 15% reversals although it is not overwhelmingly the most frequent
for these smaller trend changes as for the more major reversals. A 10%, 15% or
20% reversal means a trend change of at least 10%, 15% or 20% follows an Oct.
low. Oct. reversals for the smaller degree trend changes tend to be more evenly
distributed between lows and highs with a slight bias for lows.
Figure 1 is the anniversary date study from the Dynamic Trader software for 20%
or greater reversals since 1950.
This does not imply that every Oct. results in an intermediate or major low.
However, since Oct. is the most frequent month for an intermediate to major low,
if a market is declining into Oct., traders should always be alert to other
technical factors that might indicate a low is probable.
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