Seasonal Effects On Commodities Markets

The purpose of this lecture is to discuss the effect of seasons on commodities markets. There may be waves in the market that are about a year long. An example of seasonal supply is soybeans. Soybeans are all harvested at about the same time. In normal markets, this results in lower prices at or near harvest season. On the demand side we have natural gas. In summer natural gas is only used for cooking. But in winter natural gas is burned for heating fuel. This results in higher natural gas prices in winter.

The tricky part is figuring out when seasonal highs & lows occur. The process is simple enough for the average person to work out. But it is tedious. There will be discussion of statistical methods like average, median, standard deviation, & coefficient correlation.

There will also be some discussion of when using seasonal methods do NOT work. I must confess that I have NOT discovered all of the pitfalls of seasonal trading.
 

Biography - Kurt K Sakaeda

1957 born in Chicago Illinois.

1975 Graduated from G. Albert Lane Technical High School.

1979 Graduated De Paul University Bachelor of Science in Mathematics.

1979 First successful trade. Bought Mc Donald Douglas after a DC 10 crashes outside O'Hare Airport. Worked in various financial back offices as a computer programmer.

1992 a friend mentions the seasonal commodity price variations over drinks.

1993 First seasonal analysis complete for November Soybeans. 30 days too late to trade.

1994 First successful seasonal commodities trade.

1998 2nd place win In Robbins World Cup amateur division.

2000 1st place win in Robbins World Cup.

2004 1st place win in Robbins World Cup.